1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): “Gravesend Brooklyn” – Google News: USPS to install free parcel boxes at NYCHA complexes – News 12 Brooklyn

USPS to install free parcel boxes at NYCHA complexes  News 12 Brooklyn

Local leaders say a solution to faulty mailboxes at NYCHA complexes could soon be in sight.

“Gravesend Brooklyn” – Google News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

The Brooklyn News: Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠: What Does a Crooked Election Look Like?


Michael_Novakhov
shared this story
from Scientific American Content: Global.

For voters around the world, including the millions of Americans who will cast ballots in the midterms up to and on November 6, an election is democracy in action—an opportunity to make their voices heard, have a say in how their government is run and, if necessary, throw the bums out. It is a thoroughly political exercise, or so it would seem.

But to Peter Klimek, who works in the emerging field of electoral forensics, an election is something else as well. “Basically it is a huge, standardized social experiment,” he says. “What you are doing is taking the population of a country and segmenting it into different subpopulations—the eligible voters in their separate polling stations. Then you are having each one of them answer the same questions.”

And because huge experiments like elections follow the law of large numbers,  a bedrock principle of probability, those answers from the voting data should show “certain statistical regularities,” says Klimek, who studies complex systems at Medical University of Vienna. When they do not, when there are instead statistical anomalies, that other F–word—fraud—may be the reason.

That appears to be the case with the results of Turkey’s 2017 constitutional referendum and its 2018 presidential election, which Klimek and colleagues analyze in a paper published earlier this month in PLOS ONE. Using their own set of statistical tools, the researchers identified multiple irregularities in both elections that they attribute to systematic ballot stuffing (submission of multiple ballots per person during the election) and voter rigging (defined as coercion or intimidation of voters). In the case of the constitutional referendum they wrote, “removing such ballot-stuffing characteristic anomalies from the data would tip the overall balance from a majority of ‘No’ to a majority of ‘Yes’ votes.” Klimek says, “We’ve showed that you can develop a unique tool set that allows you not only to screen a data set for potential signs of fraud but also to identify the specific methods used.” One of the most important features of such forensic tool kits (others in the field have created their own) is their portability. They can be used to analyze elections around the world, and a physical presence is not necessary. All that’s required is the voting data, ideally at the level of individual polling stations, which can usually be downloaded from official government Web sites.

There is clearly a need. A 2010 analysis of data from elections conducted in more than 170 countries between 1978 and 2004, published on the Social Science Research Network, found signs of some cheating in 61 percent of the countries, and major problems in 27 percent of them. Since the early 2000s various research groups, including Klimek’s, have used forensic tools to examine elections in multiple countries including Venezuela, Kenya, Cambodia, South Africa, Bangladesh and Argentina.

Although the new paper from Klimek’s group includes a disclaimer that it is “by no means direct proof of electoral fraud,” it makes a strong case the Turkish elections were marred by malpractice. And, the authors wrote, the patterns of irregularities in the two elections, held 14 months apart, were barely distinguishable from each other. “We found exactly the same malpractices in exactly the same districts in 2018 as we did the year before,” Klimek says. Making that kind of connection is key to preventing fraud in future elections, he adds. “If you want to get some policy-relevant actions out of this kind of research, you need to be able to tell what happened with which likelihood in which geographical area,” he notes.

The researchers worked with data from the official Web site of the Turkish election commission. To detect signs of ballot stuffing, they used the number of voters, the number of valid ballots cast (turnout) and the total votes tallied by the winners (‘Yes’ in 2017’s referendum and for Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2018) to create an “election fingerprint” for each of the polling stations they analyzed.

For the 2017 referendum, they crunched the numbers from 153,701 stations, grouped in 28,447 neighborhoods. For the 2018 election, they looked at 168,377 stations in 44,796 neighborhoods. When the data was plotted in two dimensions and compared with standardized fingerprints from trustworthy elections with normal distributions, Klemik’s team found “highly significant statistical support” for ballot stuffing in 11 percent of the polling stations they analyzed. (Ballot stuffing inflates both turnout and the percentage of winning votes.)

Election fingerprint analysis also turned up evidence of possible voter rigging at small, rural polling stations—which are less likely to be monitored by poll observers than large urban stations are, and where it is easier to identify the political leanings of individual voters. “That makes it much easier to conduct certain malpractices,” Klimek says, such as intimidating voters with an excessive police or military presence.

Walter Mebane, a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan and co-author of a 2017 guide to election forensics for the U.S. Agency for International Development, urges caution when attributing election anomalies to possible fraud. “The problem is that many of the patterns that look irregular according to many statistical methods can be produced by strategic behavior, or normal politics,” he says. “You can tell that the pattern was manipulated or looks unusual, but you can’t tell why.”

Figuring out the “why” is the next big challenge, according to Mebane, a pioneer of the field. “Politics is weird, to use a technical term. All kinds of bizarre things can happen. I think the limit of election forensics, and this is the frontier of my research right now, is to try to see how well we can discriminate frauds from human behavior.”

An even more basic challenge faces researchers who want to use forensic tool kits to analyze U.S. elections—getting the data. “The way elections take place and are administered in the U.S. is not really up to the quality standards in other countries,” says Klimek, who tried and failed to apply some of his methods to the 2008 election. “The data quality was not good enough.” In most states, access to voter registration data is restricted mainly to the political parties, the candidates and some companies that work with them, Mebane says. 

After a 2016 presidential election marred by allegations of foreign meddling, the midterm contest looms amid concerns about voter suppression in Georgia and other states as well as unsubstantiated claims of widespread voter fraud by undocumented aliens. The most unexpected takeaway from electoral forensics may be that it is easier to analyze Russian elections than those in the U.S. “It’s really not much work to do this kind of analysis once you’ve got the data,” Klimek says. “With the algorithms we are talking about, it can be done in a couple of hours.”

Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠

The Brooklyn News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): Twitter Search / Gothamist: Democratic Defector Senator Simcha Felder Returns To The Party He was Always But Never A Part Of https://gothamist.com/2019/07/01/political_whoredom_wins_again_democ.php …pic.twitter.com/3fPY7oaBHH

Democratic Defector Senator Simcha Felder Returns To The Party He was Always But Never A Part Of
https://gothamist.com/2019/07/01/political_whoredom_wins_again_democ.php …

Twitter Search / Gothamist

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): BrooklynVegan: Re-Volts (Gimme Gimmes, Swingin’ Utters, etc) have a new 7″ (stream the title track)

San Francisco punks Re-Volts — whose lineup includes Spike Slawson (of Me First and the Gimme Gimmes, Uke-Hunt, Swingin’ Utters, and more) and Jack Dalrymple (of Swingin’ Utters, One Man Army, Dead To Me, toyGuitar, and more)…
Continue reading…

BrooklynVegan

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): BKLYNER: Opera On Tap Presents Musical History Walk At Old Stone House

PARK SLOPE – Opera On Tap will present an interactive, musical walk “through America’s volatile political history” in twelve performances over four nights at The Old Stone House. “It really focuses on American music looking at violence in American politics as well as American refusal to surrender, really using song as a form of protest,” Kim Maier, […]

BKLYNER

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): “Brooklyn Ballet” – Google News: ROMEO AND JULIET Comes To Queens For Rude Grooms’ Second Annual Free Commons Series – Broadway World

ROMEO AND JULIET Comes To Queens For Rude Grooms’ Second Annual Free Commons Series  Broadway World

Queens-based Rude Grooms announced today initial details for the company’s second annual free summer production touring parks and art spaces in Astoria …

“Brooklyn Ballet” – Google News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): “Madison Brooklyn” – Google News: NBA Insider Has New Details On Kevin Durant’s Decision – The Spun

NBA Insider Has New Details On Kevin Durant’s Decision  The Spun

It would appear that Kevin Durant’s free agency decision ultimately didn’t come down to the Knicks ownership or being lowballed.

“Madison Brooklyn” – Google News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): “Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn” – Google News: NYPD cops injured in attempt to arrest car break-in suspect – New York Post

NYPD cops injured in attempt to arrest car break-in suspect  New York Post

Kevin Janvier, 25, was either breaking in or attempting to break into cars at Avenue U and East 15th Street in Sheepshead Bay just after 1 a.m., cops said.

“Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn” – Google News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): Twitter Search / BklynEagle: Brooklyn Mirage had its liquor license renewal denied by its community board — the latest in a series of conflicts with local residents. http://ow.ly/aiY050uQQGp

Brooklyn Mirage had its liquor license renewal denied by its community board — the latest in a series of conflicts with local residents. http://ow.ly/aiY050uQQGp 

Twitter Search / BklynEagle

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): “Madison Brooklyn” – Google News: WNC softball standouts represented on all-state team – Asheville Citizen-Times

WNC softball standouts represented on all-state team  Asheville Citizen-Times

The North Carolina Softball Coaches Association has released its all-state selections which includes several standouts from WNC.

“Madison Brooklyn” – Google News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites): mikenov on Twitter: 7:38 AM 7/1/2019 – #Trump #and #Trumpism – #Posts #Review trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/738…

7:38 AM 7/1/2019 – #Trump #and #Trumpism – #Posts #Review trumpandtrumpism.com/2019/07/01/738…


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Michael Novakhov on Twitter from Michael_Novakhov (4 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): “Borough Park Brooklyn” – Google News: Things to Do With Kids in Brooklyn on July 1 – NY Metro Parents

Things to Do With Kids in Brooklyn on July 1  NY Metro Parents

Find free and low-cost things to do with kids in Brooklyn today, July 1, including fun activities and events the whole family can enjoy. See what’s going on today …

“Borough Park Brooklyn” – Google News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): “Brooklyn Art” – Google News: Things to Do With Kids in Brooklyn on July 1 – NY Metro Parents

Things to Do With Kids in Brooklyn on July 1  NY Metro Parents

Find free and low-cost things to do with kids in Brooklyn today, July 1, including fun activities and events the whole family can enjoy. See what’s going on today …

“Brooklyn Art” – Google News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): “Brooklyn Art” – Google News: New Holocaust installation aims to show how Auschwitz survivors clung to faith in the absence of hope – Art Newspaper

New Holocaust installation aims to show how Auschwitz survivors clung to faith in the absence of hope  Art Newspaper

The open-air exhibition structure, designed by the architect Daniel Libeskind, has been installed outside Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum.

“Brooklyn Art” – Google News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites): “Brooklyn NY” – Google News: Durant, Irving, and Jordan headed to Nets – WTVB News

Durant, Irving, and Jordan headed to Nets  WTVB News

BROOKLYN, NY (WTVB) – Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are teaming up in Brooklyn as they have signed free agent contracts with the Nets. Both players agreed …

“Brooklyn NY” – Google News

1. New York and Brooklyn from Michael_Novakhov (111 sites)

Brooklyn Food from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites): “Brooklyn Restaurants” – Google News: A Whirlwind, Round-the-World Food Tour of Queens – The New York Times

A Whirlwind, Round-the-World Food Tour of Queens  The New York Times

Amazon passed on it, and few travelers stop there, but New York City’s most diverse borough has sights worth seeing and restaurants that put it at the center of …

“Brooklyn Restaurants” – Google News

Brooklyn Food from Michael_Novakhov (10 sites)