#SouthCaucasus #Azerbaijan #IlhamAliyev Ilham Aliyev, arrests of the opposition leaders, political oppression, and the fabricated plots against him: assessments, analysis, predictions Current events as of November 29, 2025, mark a significant escalation:

#SouthCaucasus  #Azerbaijan  #IlhamAliyev

Ilham Aliyev, arrests of the opposition leaders, political oppression, and the fabricated plots against him: assessments, analysis, predictions

Current events as of November 29, 2025, mark a significant escalation: Azerbaijani police have raided the home of opposition leader Ali Karimli (Popular Front Party) and detained senior party members Faiq Amirli and Mammad Ibrahim. These actions are officially linked to an investigation into an alleged “coup attempt” attributed to Ramiz Mehdiyev, the former powerful Chief of Staff, whom the government accuses of plotting to seize power.Summary of Recent Developments (November 2025)
1. Assessments: The Current Wave of Repression
International organizations and human rights bodies describe the situation as a “vicious crackdown” and a “sharp decline” in fundamental freedoms, intensifying throughout 2024 and late 2025.
Targeting the Opposition: The raid on Ali Karimli’s home on November 29, 2025, is part of a broader campaign to dismantle the Popular Front Party (APFP), one of the few remaining organized opposition forces. Authorities allege Karimli was being “financed” by Ramiz Mehdiyev to destabilize the government.
Widespread Arrests: Beyond political leaders, the crackdown has targeted independent media and civil society. Prominent figures such as Gubad Ibadoghlu (economist), Tofig Yagublu (politician), and journalists from Abzas Media and Toplum TV (e.g., Sevinj Vagifgizi, Ulvi Hasanli) remain in detention on charges widely viewed as politically motivated, such as smuggling foreign currency or tax evasion.
Context of Control: This intensification coincided with the February 2024 presidential election—which monitors noted lacked genuine competition—and the hosting of the COP29 climate summit in Baku in November 2024.
2. Analysis: The “Fabricated Plots” & The Mehdiyev Case
The narrative of “fabricated plots” serves two primary functions: purging internal rivals (“old guard”) and delegitimizing external opposition.
The “Ramiz Mehdiyev Coup” Narrative: In October 2025, authorities arrested Ramiz Mehdiyev, 87, charging him with treason and attempting to seize power. The government’s narrative claims Mehdiyev proposed a “Provisional State Council” to replace President Ilham Aliyev and sought support from Russia.The “Russian Connection”: Pro-government media reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally informed Aliyev of this plot during a meeting in Dushanbe in October 2025. Analysts suggest this narrative conveniently frames the purge of Mehdiyev’s network as a defense of national sovereignty while simultaneously signaling a “loyalty test” for the elite.

Strategic Utility: By linking the traditional opposition (Karimli) to the demonized “old guard” (Mehdiyev), the regime creates a unified pretext to crush both. Experts view the charges against Mehdiyev—an 87-year-old loyalist who served the Aliyev family for decades—as implausible, suggesting they are a tool to finalize the transfer of power to a younger, more loyal cadre.
Previous Narratives: This fits a historical pattern where the government alleges “terrorist financing” or “illegal armed formations” (often linked to Armenia or Iran) to justify strict domestic control.
3. Predictions: Future Outlook
Consolidation of Power: The purge of the “old guard” (Mehdiyev era officials) is likely to continue until the administration is entirely reshaped around figures solely loyal to Ilham Aliyev and the First Vice President, Mehriban Aliyeva.
Eradication of Organized Opposition: The linkage of the APFP to a “coup plot” suggests the government may move to ban the party or permanently imprison its leadership, effectively ending organized political opposition in the country.
“Precarious Stability”: While the regime appears secure in the short term due to oil wealth and security apparatus control, experts assess its long-term stability as “precarious.” The suppression of all dissent leaves no outlet for social grievances, making the state vulnerable to external shocks or economic downturns.
Relations with Russia: The “Mehdiyev plot” narrative allows Baku to manage its complex relationship with Moscow—simultaneously accusing Russian elements of interference while praising Putin for “revealing” the plot, thus maintaining a delicate diplomatic balance.

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Picture from:
Exposing Aliyev’s Masquerade: The Illusion of Democracy Behind COP29 – Human Rights
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— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 29, 2025