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Azerbaijan resells Russian oil and gas, bypassing sanctions – Google Search & AI: Sanctions Avoidance: By importing Russian gas for domestic use, Azerbaijan can continue to export its own gas to Europe without directly violating EU sanctions on Russian gas imports.

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Sanctions Avoidance: By importing Russian gas for domestic use, Azerbaijan can continue to export its own gas to Europe without directly violating EU sanctions on Russian gas imports. 

Why doesn't Azerbaijan engage in re-exporting Russian gas? | News.az

Articles and Tweets | Post Link

Azerbaijan: The invisible hand behind Russia’s oil exports to Europe
Ara Nazarian is an associate professor of Orthopaedic Surgery at Harvard Medical School. He graduated from Tennessee Technological University with a degree in mechanical engineering, followed by graduate degrees from Boston University, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Harvard Unive
michael_novakhov.newsblur.com1h
Azerbaijan resells Russian oil and gas, bypassing sanctions – Google Search & AI google.com/search?q=Azerb… – Azerbaijan resells Russian oil and gas, bypassing sanctions .Reports suggest Azerbaijan is importing Russian gas to meet its domestic demand, which then allows it to…
Azerbaijan resells Russian oil and gas, bypassing sanctions - Google Search & AI google.com/search?q=Azerb… - Azerbaijan resells Russian oil and gas, bypassing sanctions .Reports suggest Azerbaijan is importing Russian gas to meet its domestic demand, which then allows it to…
Azerbaijan resells Russian oil and gas, bypassing sanctions – Google Search & AI google.com/search?q=Azerb… – Azerbaijan resells Russian oil and gas, bypassing sanctions .Reports suggest Azerbaijan is importing Russian gas to meet its domestic demand, which then allows it to…
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The News And Times Information Network – Blogs By Michael Novakhov – thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com
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Weapons sale to Ukraine – AI Assessments Report

Trump admin approves new sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine - ABC News

Weapons sale to Ukraine – Post Link

5.1.25

Weapons sale to Ukraine – Google Search
Michael Novakhov on X: “Weapons sale to Ukraine – Google Search https://t.co/k2Oj4jO0LG https://t.co/RqUZC1v4WS” / X
Gemini
Weapons sale to Ukraine – Search
Michael Novakhov on X: “Weapons sale to Ukraine – Search https://t.co/asi05PDBxf https://t.co/klzSfPY3v1” / X
Microsoft Copilot: Your AI companion
Grok / X

 

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AI Assessment: Russia enters Third Chechen War: Kadyrov has very serious disagreements with Putin



The claim that Russia has entered a Third Chechen War and that Kadyrov has serious disagreements with Putin is a complex and unsubstantiated one. While the Chechen–Russian conflict has a history of conflict, including two previous wars, there is no credible evidence to suggest a third war has begun. Furthermore, while Kadyrov and Putin have had disagreements, the extent of any current conflict remains unclear. [1, 1, 2, 3, 4]


Elaboration: [1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3]
  • The Chechen–Russian Conflict: The Chechen–Russian conflict has a history of armed conflict and political tension, with two major wars occurring between 1994 and 1996, and 1999 and 2000. These conflicts were primarily due to Chechnya’s desire for independence from Russia and the ensuing Russian intervention.
  • Current Status: Currently, Chechnya is a republic within the Russian Federation, led by Ramzan Kadyrov. While tensions and disagreements may exist, there is no evidence of a full-blown third war.
  • Kadyrov and Putin: Kadyrov has a long and complicated relationship with Putin. While Kadyrov is a staunch ally and loyal supporter of Putin, there have been reports of disagreements and power struggles between them. However, these disagreements do not necessarily indicate a “third war”.
  • Need for More Evidence: To substantiate the claim of a third war and serious disagreements, more credible evidence and verified information would be needed. The current situation is complex, and it’s important to avoid spreading unverified rumors. [1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14]


Generative AI is experimental.

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It’s important to clarify the historical context of the Chechen conflicts and the current situation. Here’s a breakdown:

  • The Chechen Wars:

    • Russia has engaged in two major military conflicts in Chechnya:

      • The First Chechen War (1994-1996)  
      • The Second Chechen War (1999-2009)  
    • These wars were primarily about Russia’s attempt to maintain control over the Chechen Republic, which sought independence.  

  • Current Situation and Ramzan Kadyrov:

    • Currently, Chechnya is a republic within the Russian Federation, and Ramzan Kadyrov is the head of the Chechen Republic.
    • Kadyrov has a complex relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has been a strong supporter of Putin, and Chechen forces have played a role in the war in Ukraine.  
    • It is true that from time to time, there are reports of friction, and disagreements. Kadyrov is known for very strong opinions, and expressing them publically.  
    • Therefore, while there may be disagreements between Kadyrov and Putin, it would be inaccurate to state that Russia has entered a “Third Chechen War” in the traditional sense of a large scale military conflict between Russia and Chechnya.
    • It is more accurate to say that the relationship between the Chechen republic, and the Russian federal government remains complex, and at times tense.

  • Key Points:

    • The Chechen conflicts of the 1990s and early 2000s were distinct periods of intense warfare.  
    • The current situation involves a complex political relationship.
    • Information regarding the relationships of political figures in the region, should be viewed with a degree of caution, as information can be manipulated for political gain.

I hope this helps.

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There are rumors circulating about serious disagreements between Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Vladimir Putin. Kadyrov has reportedly declared a “blood feud” against Russian legislators, which suggests growing tensions between him and the Kremlin. However, there is no confirmed evidence that Russia has entered a Third Chechen War at this time.

If you’re interested in the historical context, Chechnya has experienced two brutal wars with Russia in the past—one in 1994-1996 and another in 1999-2000—as part of its struggle for independence. Some experts believe that Russia’s imperialist ambitions in Chechnya were a precursor to its aggression in Ukraine.

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There is no credible evidence or official confirmation of a “Third Chechen War” as of May 1, 2025. The claim appears to stem from unverified posts on X, which mention tensions between Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin. These posts, including references to YouTube videos, lack substantiation from reputable sources and should be treated as inconclusive.
Recent reports do indicate strains in the Putin-Kadyrov relationship. In March 2025, IStories reported that ties soured after the Kremlin learned of Kadyrov’s alleged secret meetings with Middle Eastern officials, though specific countries were not named. Kadyrov’s ties to Muslim monarchies, particularly in the UAE, have been noted, but no direct link to a new conflict in Chechnya is established. Additionally, Kadyrov’s October 2024 declaration of a “blood feud” against Russian lawmakers over a corporate dispute involving Wildberries and an alleged assassination plot raised tensions, but this was unrelated to a broader war.
Chechnya remains under Kadyrov’s tight control, with significant autonomy granted by Putin in exchange for stability following the First (1994–1996) and Second (1999–2009) Chechen Wars. Kadyrov has bolstered his power, nearly tripling loyal military units during the Ukraine conflict, with claims of 70,000 troops, though many are deployed in Ukraine rather than Chechnya. His son, Adam Kadyrov, aged 17, was appointed to high-ranking security roles in April 2025, signaling dynastic consolidation rather than instability.
While Kadyrov’s actions—such as his response to a drone attack on a Chechen military academy in October 2024—show his assertive stance, they align with his role as a Kremlin loyalist supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, not a rebellion. Putin’s visit to Chechnya in August 2024, his first in 13 years, further underscored their public alliance, with Putin praising Chechen fighters.
The notion of a “Third Chechen War” seems to be speculative or exaggerated, possibly fueled by Kadyrov’s controversial rhetoric and regional influence. Without verified evidence, such claims should be approached with skepticism. Always cross-check social media narratives against primary sources, as they can amplify unconfirmed rumors. If you have specific details or sources prompting this question, I can dig deeper!
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Articles and Tweets | Post Link
putin and kadyrov – Google Search google.com/search?q=putin… themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/27/rel…
putin and kadyrov – Google Search google.com/search?q=putin… themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/27/rel…
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From Silk Road to strategy: Baku, Beijing align for multipolar future
By Mazahir Afandiyev I AzerNEWS At a time when the global political architecture is being reshaped—particularly against the backdrop of the new challenges brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution—every country seeks to secure its national interests by participating in global processes and managi
michael_novakhov.newsblur.com5h
Russia enters Third Chechen War: Kadyrov has very serious disagreements with Putin
Russia enters Third Chechen War: Kadyrov has very serious disagreements with Putin – YouTube youtube.com/watch?v=MvQ1x_…
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Ukraine got $50 Mil of US weapons – Google Search google.com/search?q=Ukrai… kyivpost.com/post/51800
Ukraine got $50 Mil of US weapons – Google Search google.com/search?q=Ukrai… kyivpost.com/post/51800
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The News And Times Information Network – Blogs By Michael Novakhov – thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com
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Do FBI agents lie; why, and how often?

Tweets – Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter |  Post Link
#Brooklyn #SheepsheadBay #BrightonBeach #StatenIsland #RussianBrooklyn #RussianNY Брайтонские Частушки thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com…
#Brooklyn #SheepsheadBay #BrightonBeach #StatenIsland #RussianBrooklyn #RussianNYБрайтонские Частушкиthenewsandtimes.blogspot.com…
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The News And Times Information Network – Blogs By Michael Novakhov – thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com
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Брайтонские Частушки

Брайтонские Частушки
Рыло поросёнка.
Чушка ты кондовая,
Сучка местечковая,
Стукачка участковая!
Мерзопакостная тварь!

Стелла Пердюкова
(А не Новахова)
Срать уселась снова.
Московская тупая блядь
Ей бы только срать и срать!
Жирная, вонючая,
Мерзавка злоебучая!
Воровка и злодейка,
Как вся её семейка!

Мери Говнюкова
(А не Новахова) –
Сумасшедшая корова!
КГБешная зараза,
Вылезла из унитаза!
Хаясыска и говно,
Сдохла бы уже давно!

Проклятье вам и смерть,
Чтоб на свете не смердеть!

И то же самое – всем вашим выродкам,
И выродкам ваших выродков!
Аминь.

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The News And Times Information Network – Blogs By Michael Novakhov – thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com
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Osint AI Analysis in Counterintelligence Investigations

Conterintelligence 

Osint AI Analysis in Counterintelligence Investigations | Post Link

AI analysis is increasingly used within OSINT investigations to automate tasks, analyze large datasets, and enhance threat detection accuracy. AI can identify patterns, detect anomalies, and even analyze images and text for unusual or suspicious elements, assisting in investigations at various stages. [1, 2, 3]


Key ways AI enhances OSINT analysis in counterintelligence: [1, 1, 4, 4]
  • Automated Data Collection and Analysis: AI tools can monitor data sources in real-time, identify patterns, and flag suspicious activity, saving analysts time and effort. [1, 1, 2, 4, 4]
  • Sentiment Analysis: AI can analyze text for sentiment, allowing analysts to understand the tone and potential biases within public information. [1, 1, 5, 6]
  • Image and Video Analysis: AI can analyze images and videos for details, enhance quality, and even detect if images are AI-generated or manipulated. [1, 1, 3, 3]
  • Entity Recognition and Classification: AI tools can identify and classify entities like people, organizations, locations, and dates within large datasets, aiding in the identification of connections and relationships. [7, 7]
  • Prompt Engineering: Analysts can use prompt engineering to guide AI models to perform specific tasks, such as generating code or summarizing data. [4, 4]
  • Corroboration and Verification: OSINT, especially when combined with AI analysis, can be used to corroborate information gathered from other sources and verify the credibility of leads. [3, 3]
Examples of AI applications in counterintelligence OSINT: [8, 8]
  • Vetting potential hires: AI algorithms can analyze online presence, including social media, to identify potential risks associated with candidates, according to 3GIMBALS. [8, 8]
  • Monitoring social media for extremist activity: AI can be trained to identify language patterns and behaviors that suggest extremist ideology or disgruntlement. [8, 8]
  • Investigating cybercrime: AI can help identify threat actors, monitor their digital footprints, and gather evidence for legal cases, says Virtual Cyber Labs. [9, 9]
Challenges and Considerations: [10, 10]
  • Synthetic content and deepfakes: The rise of AI-generated content and deepfakes poses challenges for OSINT analysts, requiring the development of new techniques to detect and authenticate information. [10, 10]
  • Bias in AI algorithms: AI algorithms can reflect biases present in the data they are trained on, leading to inaccurate or unfair results. [3, 3, 11, 12, 13]
  • Interpretability and explainability: Understanding how AI algorithms arrive at their conclusions is crucial for building trust and ensuring accountability. [3, 14]
  • Ethical considerations: The use of AI in OSINT raises ethical questions regarding privacy, surveillance, and the potential for misuse. [3, 3, 15, 16, 17]


Generative AI is experimental.

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The News And Times Information Network – Blogs By Michael Novakhov – thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com
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“OSINT” collection: Artificial Intelligence is Transforming Open-Source Intelligence
Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠
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AI-Powered OSINT Tools in 2025 | How Artificial Intelligence is Transforming Open-Source Intelligence Gathering

Monday April 28th, 2025 at 1:17 PM

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The rise of AI-powered OSINT tools in 2025 has revolutionized the way intelligence professionals, cybersecurity experts, and law enforcement agencies collect and analyze open-source data. AI-driven OSINT tools can automate reconnaissance, analyze large datasets, and detect hidden patterns, making intelligence gathering faster and more efficient. From social media tracking and deepfake detection to NLP-based data analysis and machine learning-driven threat detection, AI enhances the accuracy and effectiveness of OSINT investigations. However, ethical concerns, misinformation risks, and AI model limitations remain challenges. This blog explores the best AI tools for OSINT in 2025, their benefits, challenges, and future trends in intelligence gathering.

Table of Contents



Introduction

In 2025, Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) remains a vital tool for cybersecurity, threat intelligence, law enforcement, and competitive analysis. With the integration of artificial intelligence (AI), OSINT data collection has become more efficient, precise, and automated than ever before. AI-powered tools can scan massive datasets, extract actionable insights, and automate intelligence gathering, reducing human effort while increasing accuracy.

From automated web crawlers to AI-driven social media analysis, facial recognition, NLP-based intelligence gathering, and deepfake detection, AI is changing the landscape of OSINT investigations.

This blog explores the best AI tools for OSINT in 2025, their functionalities, and how they assist intelligence professionals in gathering and analyzing open-source data.

What is OSINT and Why is AI Important?

Understanding OSINT

OSINT (Open-Source Intelligence) involves collecting and analyzing publicly available data from multiple sources, including:

  • Social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn
  • News websites, blogs, and discussion forums
  • Government databases and public records
  • The dark web and underground marketplaces
  • Financial reports, leaked datasets, and corporate disclosures

How AI Enhances OSINT

AI-driven OSINT tools offer several advantages:

  • Automated data collection from multiple sources, eliminating manual effort
  • Pattern recognition and trend analysis in large datasets
  • Fact-checking and misinformation detection
  • Image, video, and voice analysis for intelligence gathering
  • Deepfake detection and cybersecurity threat monitoring

AI significantly improves the speed, accuracy, and efficiency of OSINT investigations, helping professionals track threats, verify sources, and extract intelligence with minimal human intervention.

Best AI Tools for OSINT Data Gathering in 2025

1. Maltego – AI-Powered Network Analysis

Maltego is one of the most advanced AI-driven OSINT tools for intelligence gathering and digital forensics.

  • Uses machine learning (ML) to map relationships between individuals, organizations, and domains
  • Automates data collection from public and private OSINT sources
  • Commonly used by cybersecurity professionals, law enforcement, and journalists

2. OSINT Framework – AI-Enhanced Data Discovery

OSINT Framework is an open-source intelligence tool that integrates AI for advanced data discovery.

  • Uses AI-driven NLP (Natural Language Processing) to extract relevant intelligence
  • Automates deep and surface web searches
  • Detects misinformation, security threats, and cyber risks

3. Shodan – AI-Based Internet Reconnaissance

Shodan is known as the “Google for hackers,” allowing OSINT professionals to scan and track internet-connected devices.

  • AI-enhanced risk analysis for IoT devices
  • Automated vulnerability detection for cybersecurity audits
  • Used by ethical hackers and penetration testers

4. SpiderFoot – AI-Powered Digital Footprint Analysis

SpiderFoot is an automated OSINT tool designed to analyze an individual’s or organization’s online footprint.

  • AI-driven data correlation from social media, domains, and leaked data
  • Identifies security vulnerabilities, compromised credentials, and personal data leaks
  • Used for cybersecurity threat assessments

5. Google Dorking – AI-Assisted Advanced Search

Google Dorking leverages AI to extract hidden data from search engines.

  • Uses AI-based search queries to find exposed sensitive information
  • Identifies unsecured databases, login portals, and forgotten web pages
  • Commonly used by ethical hackers and security researchers

6. Social-Searcher – AI for Social Media Intelligence

Social-Searcher is an AI-powered social media OSINT tool used for tracking online activities.

  • Monitors public conversations, hashtags, and mentions across platforms
  • Uses sentiment analysis and behavioral tracking for intelligence gathering
  • Helpful for brand monitoring, law enforcement, and crisis management

How AI Improves OSINT Investigations

  • Automates Data Collection – AI eliminates manual effort in searching and filtering large volumes of data.
  • Enhances Threat Detection – AI detects cyber threats, scams, and fraud attempts in real-time.
  • Increases Accuracy – AI-powered NLP can analyze text, speech, and images with minimal errors.
  • Reduces False Positives – AI helps distinguish between real threats and false alarms.
  • Improves Decision-Making – AI-driven analytics provide actionable intelligence to professionals.

Challenges of AI in OSINT

Despite its advantages, AI-based OSINT tools face some challenges:

  • False Information & Deepfakes – AI struggles to differentiate between real and AI-generated misinformation.
  • Ethical Concerns & Privacy Issues – Using AI for surveillance and intelligence gathering raises legal and ethical concerns.
  • Data Overload – AI may collect too much data, making analysis complex without proper filtering.
  • Dependence on AI Accuracy – AI models require continuous updates to remain effective against evolving threats.

The Future of AI in OSINT

The future of AI in OSINT is expected to include:

  • Advanced AI-Powered Facial Recognition for identity verification
  • Autonomous AI Agents for deepfake detection and real-time intelligence gathering
  • Blockchain-Based OSINT for securing data integrity and verification
  • AI-Generated Threat Intelligence Reports for rapid decision-making

As AI technology continues to evolve, OSINT professionals will rely more on AI-driven automation, predictive analysis, and deep learning models to gather intelligence effectively.

Conclusion

AI-powered OSINT tools are reshaping the way intelligence is gathered and analyzed in 2025. From automated social media monitoring to advanced data discovery and digital footprint tracking, AI helps professionals detect threats, verify information, and uncover hidden intelligence efficiently.

While AI brings speed, scalability, and precision to OSINT, it is not without challenges. Ethical considerations, misinformation detection, and AI model accuracy remain critical concerns.

For organizations and cybersecurity professionals, leveraging AI-powered OSINT tools is no longer optional—it is essential for staying ahead in the intelligence and cybersecurity landscape.

FAQs

What is OSINT, and how does AI improve it?

OSINT (Open-Source Intelligence) involves collecting publicly available information for intelligence and security purposes. AI enhances OSINT by automating data collection, analyzing patterns, and improving threat detection accuracy.

Which are the best AI-powered OSINT tools in 2025?

Some of the top AI-driven OSINT tools include Maltego, Shodan, SpiderFoot, Social-Searcher, Google Dorking, and OSINT Framework, each specializing in different aspects of intelligence gathering.

How does AI automate OSINT data collection?

AI uses web crawlers, machine learning algorithms, and data mining techniques to scan, extract, and analyze large amounts of publicly available information.

Can AI detect deepfakes and misinformation in OSINT?

Yes, AI-powered tools can detect deepfakes and misinformation by analyzing synthetic media patterns, facial recognition inconsistencies, and AI-generated text anomalies.

How does AI assist in cybersecurity OSINT?

AI helps in cybersecurity OSINT by identifying vulnerabilities, monitoring cyber threats, detecting phishing attempts, and analyzing hacker activities on dark web forums.

What role does NLP play in OSINT investigations?

Natural Language Processing (NLP) enables AI to extract intelligence from text-based sources, such as news articles, social media posts, and leaked documents.

Can AI track individuals and organizations through OSINT?

Yes, AI-powered OSINT tools can analyze digital footprints, social media activity, and network connections to track individuals and organizations.

What are the ethical concerns of AI in OSINT?

AI-driven OSINT raises ethical concerns related to privacy, mass surveillance, data misuse, and the potential for AI-generated disinformation.

Is AI-powered OSINT legal?

AI-powered OSINT is legal if used for ethical investigations, cybersecurity, and law enforcement purposes, but unauthorized surveillance and data scraping may violate regulations.

How does AI-powered OSINT help in law enforcement?

Law enforcement agencies use AI for crime investigation, tracking suspects, detecting fraud, and identifying cyber threats.

What is Google Dorking, and how does AI enhance it?

Google Dorking is an advanced search technique used to find hidden online data. AI enhances Google Dorking by automating queries and detecting exposed sensitive information.

Can AI detect fake social media accounts in OSINT investigations?

Yes, AI analyzes account activity, language patterns, and metadata to identify fake profiles, bots, and coordinated misinformation campaigns.

How does AI detect cyber threats using OSINT?

AI scans dark web forums, security reports, and hacker discussions to predict and prevent potential cyberattacks.

What are the challenges of using AI for OSINT?

Challenges include data accuracy issues, ethical concerns, AI model biases, reliance on public data, and difficulties in detecting sophisticated deepfakes.

Can AI identify security vulnerabilities through OSINT?

Yes, AI-powered tools like Shodan and SpiderFoot scan exposed devices, open ports, and unprotected servers to identify security risks.

How is machine learning applied in OSINT?

Machine learning in OSINT is used for pattern recognition, behavior analysis, anomaly detection, and automated intelligence reporting.

How does AI enhance social media intelligence gathering?

AI tracks trending topics, sentiment analysis, fake news detection, and user behavior monitoring across multiple platforms.

Can AI OSINT tools access the dark web?

Yes, some AI-powered OSINT tools scan dark web marketplaces and forums for leaked credentials, cybercrime discussions, and emerging threats.

What industries benefit from AI-powered OSINT?

Industries such as cybersecurity, law enforcement, corporate security, journalism, and competitive intelligence benefit from AI-driven OSINT solutions.

How does AI identify misinformation in OSINT data?

AI uses fact-checking databases, linguistic analysis, and AI-generated content detection to verify the authenticity of information.

Is AI OSINT useful for financial fraud detection?

Yes, AI detects fraudulent financial transactions, insider trading, and money laundering schemes by analyzing public financial records and market data.

What role does facial recognition play in AI-driven OSINT?

Facial recognition AI helps identify individuals in public images, security footage, and social media platforms, aiding in investigations.

How does AI contribute to open-source cyber threat intelligence?

AI enhances cyber threat intelligence by analyzing malware reports, hacker activities, and vulnerability disclosures from public sources.

Can AI predict future cyber threats using OSINT?

Yes, AI uses predictive analytics and historical data patterns to forecast potential cyber threats and attack trends.

What is the difference between AI-driven OSINT and traditional OSINT?

Traditional OSINT relies on manual searches and human analysis, while AI-driven OSINT automates data collection, enhances accuracy, and processes large datasets faster.

Can AI-powered OSINT be used for competitive intelligence?

Yes, businesses use AI OSINT to monitor competitor strategies, market trends, brand mentions, and industry news.

How does AI help journalists and researchers with OSINT?

AI assists journalists and researchers by fact-checking sources, analyzing large volumes of public records, and detecting fake news.

What are the future trends in AI for OSINT?

Future trends include AI-powered deepfake detection, blockchain-integrated OSINT, automated misinformation tracking, and AI-driven risk assessments.

Should organizations invest in AI-powered OSINT tools?

Yes, organizations should invest in AI-driven OSINT tools to enhance security, improve threat intelligence, and gain valuable insights for decision-making.

Read the whole story

 

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Articles and Tweets | “OSINT” collection

AI-Powered OSINT Tools in 2025 | How Artificial Intelligence is Transforming Open-Source Intelligence Gathering
The rise of AI-powered OSINT tools in 2025 has revolutionized the way intelligence professionals, cybersecurity experts, and law enforcement agencies collect and analyze open-source data. AI-driven OSINT tools can automate reconnaissance, analyze large datasets, and detect hidden patterns, making in
michael_novakhov.newsblur.com19m
RT by @mikenov: Inside this week’s issue of The New Yorker: nyer.cm/DrXUZ08
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“OSINT” collection on Google: google.com/collections/s/…
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RT by @mikenov: Israeli PM Netanyahu will visit Azerbaijan on May 8, 2025. May 8 is the day when Azerbaijan’s Jewish National Hero Albert Agarunov fell in 1992 while defending Shusha against Armenian invasion.
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Predictive analysis of the Russia – Ukraine conflict
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“OSINT” collection google.com/collections/s/… – #NewsAndTimes #NT #TNT #News #Times #World #USA #POTUS #DOJ #FBI #CIA #DIA #DOD #ODNI #Trump #TrumpNews #TrumpISTAN #Israel #Mossad #Netanyahu #Ukraine #NewAbwehr #OSINT #Putin #Russia #GRU #Путин #Россия #Bloggers #Opinions…
"OSINT" collection google.com/collections/s/… - #NewsAndTimes #NT #TNT #News #Times #World #USA #POTUS #DOJ #FBI #CIA #DIA #DOD #ODNI #Trump #TrumpNews #TrumpISTAN #Israel #Mossad #Netanyahu #Ukraine #NewAbwehr #OSINT #Putin #Russia #GRU #Путин #Россия #Bloggers #Opinions…
“OSINT” collection google.com/collections/s/… – #NewsAndTimes #NT #TNT #News #Times #World #USA #POTUS #DOJ #FBI #CIA #DIA #DOD #ODNI #Trump #TrumpNews #TrumpISTAN #Israel #Mossad #Netanyahu #Ukraine #NewAbwehr #OSINT #Putin #Russia #GRU #Путин #Россия #Bloggers #Opinions…
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RT by @mikenov: 🇩🇪🇺🇦 Merz: We are not an uninvolved third-party or a mediator between two opponents. We are standing unequivocally on Ukraine’s side.
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RT by @mikenov: Corrupt person of the year award winners : 2012 : 🇦🇿 Ilham Aliyev
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National
National
NPR coverage of national news, U.S. politics, elections, business, arts, culture, health and science, and technology. Subscribe to the NPR Nation RSS feed.
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RT by @mikenov: Netanyahu says IDF F-16s intercepted Iranian aircraft heading to Damascus to “rescue Assad.”
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Very good summary from Grok: Trump, Mossad, Yossi Cohen, and Russia as the cover in Elections 2016 and 2024. A comment: I have absolutely no intentions, or need, or desire to deflect the attention “from Russia’s documented actions or to push anti-Israel tropes.” I just want to…
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RT by @mikenov: Германия и Европа поддерживают Украину в ее оборонительной борьбе против России, заявил вероятный будущий канцлер Германии Фридрих Мерц. По его словам, с этой поддержкой несовместимы “навязанный мир или подчинение фактам, созданным силой оружия”, тем более вопреки “явной воле…
RT by @mikenov: Германия и Европа поддерживают Украину в ее оборонительной борьбе против России, заявил вероятный будущий канцлер Германии Фридрих Мерц. По его словам, с этой поддержкой несовместимы "навязанный мир или подчинение фактам, созданным силой оружия", тем более вопреки "явной воле…
Германия и Европа поддерживают Украину в ее оборонительной борьбе против России, заявил вероятный будущий канцлер Германии Фридрих Мерц. По его словам, с этой поддержкой несовместимы “навязанный мир или подчинение фактам, созданным силой оружия”, тем более вопреки “явной воле…
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Vladimir Putin’s political personality
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RT by @mikenov: 13 years ago
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Trump, Mossad, Yossi Cohen, and Russia as the cover in Elections 2016 and 2024 – Google Search google.com/search?q=Trump… thenation.com/article/world/…
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Vladimir Putin’s political personality – AI Assessment

Psychological Profile of Vladimir Putin | USPP

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Putin’s Political Personality | Bing

Bing – Copilot

Vladimir Putin’s political personality has been analyzed extensively by experts. He is often described as a dominant and controlling leader, with traits such as ambition, self-assurance, and a strong work ethic. His leadership style is characterized by a “strongman” approach, where he maintains authority through calculated decisions and a focus on power dynamics. Some studies suggest he exhibits traits like narcissism and Machiavellianism, which influence his decision-making and interactions with others.

Grok

https://x.com/i/grok/share/gDzL2aG2bKwYIiSvloW1TfzS8

Vladimir Putin’s political personality is shaped by his background as a KGB officer, his pragmatic approach to power, and a deep-seated belief in Russia’s historical greatness. He projects an image of strength, control, and national pride, cultivating a persona as a defender of Russian interests against perceived Western encroachment. His leadership style is characterized by:
  • Authoritarian Control: Putin maintains tight control over political institutions, media, and opposition. He uses legal mechanisms, like constitutional changes, to extend his rule—potentially until 2036—while suppressing dissent through censorship and imprisonment of critics like Navalny.
  • Strategic Opportunism: He adapts to circumstances, balancing nationalist rhetoric with pragmatic deals (e.g., energy partnerships or geopolitical alliances with China). His foreign policy, including the Ukraine invasion, reflects calculated risks to assert Russia’s influence, though often at high cost.
  • Cult of Personality: Putin fosters a macho, disciplined image—think shirtless horseback riding or judo—appealing to traditional Russian values. State propaganda amplifies this, portraying him as indispensable to Russia’s stability.
  • Paranoid Realism: Shaped by his intelligence background, he views global politics as a zero-sum game, distrusting Western intentions. NATO expansion and color revolutions fuel his belief in external threats, justifying domestic crackdowns and aggressive foreign policy.
  • Patriotic Historicism: He leans on Russia’s imperial and Soviet past to legitimize his rule, framing himself as restoring Russia’s rightful place. This resonates domestically but alienates post-Soviet neighbors.
His personality aligns with a “silovik” mindset—security-focused, loyal to state power, and skeptical of liberal ideals. While effective in consolidating power, it breeds isolation, economic stagnation, and dependence on a narrow elite. Critics argue his rigidity and miscalculations, like Ukraine, expose vulnerabilities in his approach. Supporters see him as a bulwark against chaos and Western dominance.
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Predictive analysis of the Russia – Ukraine conflict – AI Assessment

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War

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Predictive analysis of the Russia – Ukraine conflict | B | G

Predictive analysis of the RussiaUkraine conflict focuses on using data and models to anticipate potential outcomes, including the likelihood of escalation, the impact on global grain security, and even the future of military logistics. This analysis helps understand the complex dynamics of the conflict and potentially guide decision-making for conflict prevention and response. [1, 2, 3, 4]


Here’s a more detailed breakdown of predictive analysis in the context of the conflict:


1. Conflict Prediction: [4, 4, 5, 5]
  • AI and machine learning models: These models can analyze various data points, such as social media trends, news articles, and military deployments, to identify patterns and predict potential escalations or shifts in the conflict. [4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7]
  • Early warning tools: These tools, ranging from qualitative data analysis to advanced AI, are used to anticipate the impacts of conflict and violence, including the potential for escalation. [3, 3, 4, 4]
  • Geospatial analysis: Analyzing the spatial distribution of events, such as air alerts, can help predict where and when conflicts might occur. [7, 7, 8, 8]
  • Predictive peacebuilding: This approach uses data science to understand the roots and warning signs of conflict, aiming to develop strategies for preventing and mitigating conflict. [3, 3]
2. Impact Assessment: [2, 2]
  • Global grain security: Predictive models can assess the impact of the conflict on global food prices and grain security, helping to anticipate potential shortages and resource allocation. [2, 2, 9]
  • Economic impacts: Analysis can predict the economic consequences of the conflict, including impacts on trade, investment, and energy markets. [2, 10, 10, 11, 12]
  • Military logistics: Predictive analytics can help optimize supply chains and resource allocation for military operations, potentially reducing vulnerabilities and improving efficiency. [1, 1, 13]
3. Future Trends: [5, 5, 14, 14, 15, 15]
  • AI-enabled warfare: The conflict highlights the increasing role of AI in military operations, including intelligence analysis, drone control, and electronic warfare. [5, 5, 14, 14, 15, 15]
  • Cybersecurity implications: The conflict has raised concerns about the use of AI for cybersecurity and the need to strengthen data encryption and exchange networks. [5, 5]
  • Digital transformation: The conflict has accelerated the shift towards cloud computing and digital infrastructure in both military and civilian sectors. [16, 16, 17]
4. Limitations and Challenges: [18, 18]
  • Unpredictability of human behavior: Predicting the actions and intentions of actors in a conflict is inherently complex and can be challenging for models to capture. [7, 18]
  • Data limitations: The availability and quality of data can affect the accuracy and reliability of predictive models. [19, 19, 20]
  • Evolving nature of conflict: The conflict is constantly evolving, and models may need to be updated and recalibrated to stay relevant. [8, 8, 21, 22, 23]
In conclusion, predictive analysis plays a crucial role in understanding the complex dynamics of the RussiaUkraine conflict and in guiding decision-making for conflict prevention and response. While challenges exist, the use of AI and data science is expected to become increasingly important in addressing the global implications of the conflict. [1, 3, 4, 24, 25]



Generative AI is experimental.

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Copilot: The Russia-Ukraine conflict, now in its fourth year as of April 2025, remains a defining geopolitical crisis with significant implications for global security, economic stability, and humanitarian welfare. Analysts suggest that Russia currently holds the strategic advantage, maintaining control over key territories such as Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge connecting them. Ukraine faces challenges in generating sufficient land forces to reclaim these areas, despite ongoing military efforts.

Recent assessments indicate that Russia continues to advance incrementally across multiple fronts, including Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kursk, with daily territorial gains. Ukraine’s military, constrained by manpower shortages and demographic shifts, struggles to sustain its defensive operations. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with Russia reiterating its long-standing demands that preclude a stable peace agreement.
The trajectory of the conflict depends on several factors, including international support for Ukraine, Russia’s military strategy, and potential shifts in diplomatic negotiations. If Ukraine can secure increased military aid and bolster its forces, it may be able to push back Russian advances. Conversely, if Russia consolidates its territorial gains and maintains its operational momentum, the conflict could extend indefinitely.
Would you like insights on potential diplomatic resolutions or economic impacts?
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Predictive analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2025 is complex, as it hinges on multiple variables—military, economic, political, and geopolitical—that are dynamic and interdependent. Below, I outline key factors influencing the conflict’s trajectory, potential scenarios, and their likelihood, drawing on available data and trends while avoiding speculative overreach. The analysis focuses on the near term (2025) and acknowledges the inherent uncertainty of war outcomes.
Key Factors Shaping the Conflict in 2025
  1. Military Dynamics:
    • Russia’s Strategy and Resources: Russia has adopted a strategy of attritional warfare, aiming to exhaust Ukraine through sustained pressure and incremental territorial gains. In 2024, Russian forces gained approximately 4,168 km², primarily in Donetsk, but at a high cost, with reported casualties exceeding 420,000 for the year. Russia’s tank reserves are dwindling, with estimates suggesting stocks of restorable tanks may be exhausted by mid-2025, and restoration rates have dropped significantly. Artillery and rocket launcher shortages could emerge by 2025-2026. Manpower remains a challenge, with recruitment struggling to keep pace with losses (40,000 recruits vs. 40,000 losses monthly in early 2025).
    • Ukraine’s Capabilities: Ukraine has demonstrated resilience, inflicting unsustainable losses on Russian forces while holding key defensive lines. Ukrainian drone warfare has improved, with FPV drones destroying 85% of Russian targets in the Pokrovsk direction by early 2025, up from 50% in mid-2024. However, Ukraine faces manpower shortages, exacerbated by reluctance to mobilize 18- to 25-year-olds, and relies heavily on Western aid for artillery, air defense (e.g., Patriot systems), and long-range systems (HIMARS, ATACMS).
    • Western Support: The suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing in March 2025 has strained Ukraine’s capabilities, with Patriot missile stocks potentially depleting by mid-2025. Europe has increased support, with Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the UK committing billions in aid and drone production, but it may not fully offset U.S. reductions. European defense production is ramping up, potentially meeting more of Ukraine’s needs by late 2025.
  2. Economic and Domestic Factors:
    • Russia: Russia’s economy faces stagflation risks, with inflation at 10.2% in early 2025 and projected to fall to 7-8% by year-end. Military spending (6% of GDP) sustains the war effort, but sanctions and equipment losses limit long-term capacity. Public support for negotiations is around 60%, but Putin’s insistence on maximalist goals (regime change, territorial concessions) limits diplomatic flexibility.
    • Ukraine: Ukraine’s economy shows resilience, with projected GDP growth of 2.5-3.5% in 2025, supported by domestic defense production (up from 1.3 billion to 20 billion hryvnia, 2014-2024) and EU investments. However, energy infrastructure attacks and population displacement (7 million refugees) strain recovery. The IMF’s baseline scenario assumes the war ends by late 2025, but a prolonged conflict could deepen fiscal deficits.
  3. Geopolitical and Diplomatic Context:
    • U.S. Policy under Trump: The Trump administration’s push for a ceasefire, coupled with aid pauses, pressures Ukraine to negotiate. Trump’s unpredictability complicates predictions, but his focus on forcing negotiations may lead to concessions that favor Russia unless Putin overplays his hand.
    • Russia’s Stance: Putin has rejected ceasefire proposals unless they include Ukrainian capitulation, demilitarization, and territorial losses. Kremlin narratives portray Ukraine as an illegitimate negotiating partner, aiming to undermine Western support.
    • Allied Support: NATO and EU countries remain committed, with increased defense budgets and production (e.g., Rheinmetall’s nitrocellulose expansion for artillery shells). However, political fatigue in the West and competing global crises (e.g., Middle East, Taiwan) could dilute focus on Ukraine.
    • Third-Party Actors: Russia relies on North Korean troops (withdrawn in February 2025 after high casualties) and Iranian drones, while China provides indirect support via sanctions evasion. These partnerships bolster Russia but are insufficient to decisively shift the balance.
  4. Technological and Tactical Innovations:
    • Drones and Motorcycles: Both sides are adapting. Russia is developing motorcycle-based tactics for speed and maneuverability to evade drones, while Ukraine’s drone production and integration with ground operations are advancing.
    • Energy Infrastructure Attacks: Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s energy grid aims to cripple its economy and morale, while Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil facilities (6,500+ in 2024) disrupt Moscow’s revenue.
    • AI and Electronic Warfare: AI-guided munitions and electronic warfare are increasingly critical, with Ukraine testing new prototypes to counter Russian advances.
Potential Scenarios for 2025
Based on these factors, I outline three primary scenarios for the conflict’s trajectory in 2025, with estimated likelihoods and key drivers. These align with analyses from sources like MAX Security and Chatham House.
  1. Ceasefire Agreement (60% Likelihood):
    • Description: A fragile ceasefire is negotiated, likely under U.S. pressure, freezing the front line without resolving territorial disputes. Both sides maximize territorial gains before talks, with Russia holding ~20% of Ukraine and Ukraine retaining parts of Kursk. Terms may include prisoner swaps (as seen in April 2025), bans on energy infrastructure strikes, and Black Sea truces.
    • Drivers: Trump’s threat to cut aid forces Zelensky to negotiate, while Putin faces domestic pressure (60% of Russians support talks) and equipment shortages. European aid sustains Ukraine’s leverage, preventing total capitulation.
    • Implications: A ceasefire allows Ukraine to lift martial law, hold elections, and begin reconstruction, but violations are likely, as seen post-Minsk Agreements. Russia may use the pause to rebuild forces, while Ukraine strengthens its defense industry. Global energy markets stabilize, but geopolitical tensions persist.
  2. Protracted Attritional Conflict (35% Likelihood):
    • Description: The war continues as a stalemate, with neither side achieving a breakthrough. Russia makes marginal gains (e.g., in Donetsk, Luhansk) but lacks resources for decisive victories. Ukraine holds defensive lines but struggles with manpower and U.S. aid cuts. Trench warfare and drone-heavy tactics dominate, with high casualties on both sides.
    • Drivers: Putin rejects ceasefire terms if Russia captures key logistical hubs (e.g., Pokrovsk), believing military victory is achievable. Ukraine’s resilience, bolstered by European aid and domestic production, prevents collapse. Western fatigue and U.S. isolationism limit support, prolonging the stalemate.
    • Implications: Ukraine’s economy faces deeper shocks, with inflation rising and reconstruction delayed. Russia’s economy stagnates further, risking social unrest. Global attention shifts to other conflicts, reducing diplomatic pressure for resolution.
  3. Decisive Shift (5% Likelihood):
    • Description: Either side achieves a significant breakthrough, leading to a Ukrainian victory (retaking pre-2022 borders) or Russian victory (major territorial gains, regime change). A Ukrainian collapse is less likely due to European support, while a Russian collapse could stem from economic implosion or internal dissent.
    • Drivers: For Ukraine, a surge in Western aid (e.g., lifted restrictions on long-range strikes) or Russian overextension could enable a counteroffensive. For Russia, a complete U.S. aid cutoff and Ukrainian manpower shortages could tip the balance. A sudden leadership change (e.g., Putin’s removal) could also disrupt Russia’s war effort.
    • Implications: A Ukrainian victory would bolster NATO and European security but strain Russia’s global influence. A Russian victory would embolden authoritarian regimes and destabilize Europe, impacting global trade and security.
Critical Uncertainties
  • U.S. Policy Consistency: Trump’s unpredictability could lead to renewed aid or further cuts, dramatically affecting Ukraine’s resilience.
  • Russian Domestic Stability: Economic strain and casualty backlash could force Putin to negotiate or escalate, depending on internal pressures.
  • European Commitment: If Europe fully compensates for U.S. aid reductions, Ukraine’s defensive capacity strengthens; otherwise, vulnerabilities grow.
  • Technological Edge: Advances in drones, AI, or electronic warfare could shift tactical advantages, though neither side currently holds a decisive edge.
Conclusion
The most likely outcome in 2025 is a fragile ceasefire (60%), driven by U.S. pressure and mutual exhaustion, though it risks violations without addressing core issues like territorial sovereignty. A protracted stalemate (35%) is the next most likely, perpetuating attrition and economic strain. A decisive victory for either side (5%) remains improbable absent major shifts in aid, leadership, or resources. Ukraine’s resilience and European support mitigate the risk of collapse, but Russia’s resource constraints and domestic pressures could limit its ability to sustain indefinite warfare. Monitoring U.S. policy, Russian equipment stocks, and European aid delivery will be critical to refining this outlook.
For further details on specific aid packages or military developments, refer to sources like the Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org) or MAX Security (max-security.com).
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