New data from analysts at Ranking.kz highlights a concerning trend: rising anti-vaccination sentiment in Kazakhstan is contributing to the resurgence of infectious diseases that could have been prevented through routine immunization.
A Sharp Rise in Preventable Infections
According to the National Statistics Bureau, the incidence of several vaccine-preventable diseases has spiked over the past five years. When comparing cases per 100,000 people between 2019 and 2024, whooping cough increased 19-fold, scarlet fever 5.4-fold, viral hepatitis 3.1-fold, and measles nearly doubled. These increases are also reflected in absolute numbers.
The resurgence of measles is particularly striking. After a decline following the 2018-19 outbreak, the disease surged again in 2023, with cases jumping from just 4 to 29,700. Health officials described it as the largest outbreak in a decade, attributing the spike to imported infections and their spread among unvaccinated communities.
While the situation showed little improvement by the end of 2024, 2025 brought some relief. According to Kazakhstan’s chief sanitary doctor, Sarkhat Beisenova, 2,800 cases were recorded in the first ten months of the year. Notably, 80% of those infected were unvaccinated children, mostly due to parental refusal.
Why Vaccine Refusals Are Increasing
The number of vaccination refusals has been rising steadily in Kazakhstan. According to the Ministry of Health, there were 5,300 recorded refusals in 2017. By 2024, that figure had jumped to 20,700 and approached 20,000 again in 2025.
A 2024 UNICEF study revealed that in 60% of cases, parents offered no specific reason for refusing vaccinations, citing only personal beliefs. Religious objections accounted for 12%, distrust of vaccines for another 12%, and 6% admitted they were influenced by negative rumors. Social media continues to fuel fear around “severe vaccine reactions,” “risks of complications,” and widely debunked myths, such as a link between vaccines and autism.
In response, Kazakhstan’s National Center for Public Health has launched an informational portal to provide evidence-based explanations of vaccine safety and to refute common misinformation.
Herd Immunity: A Collective Responsibility
To effectively stop the spread of contagious diseases, a high level of immunization is critical. For measles, 95-97% of the population must be vaccinated; for polio, around 80%. According to the Committee for Sanitary and Epidemiological Control, Kazakhstan’s overall vaccine coverage stood at 95.3% in February 2025.
International data supports Kazakhstan’s strong vaccination rates among infants. In 2024, more than 98% of children under one were vaccinated against polio, hepatitis B, whooping cough, diphtheria, and tetanus. Measles and rubella vaccinations reached 93%, and pneumococcus 90%, rates higher than the global, Asian, and European averages. Still, even a small unvaccinated population segment can trigger disease outbreaks.
The World Health Organization classifies vaccine hesitancy as one of the top threats to global health. A landmark study by Australian epidemiologist Andrew Shattock, published in The Lancet, modeled a world without vaccines. Over the past 50 years, vaccines have prevented 154 million deaths, 146 million of them children under five.
“In 2024, the probability that a child under 10 will live to see their next birthday is 40% higher than in a world without vaccination. This increased survival likelihood even extends into old age,” Shattock noted.
Child mortality differences are stark: 2.8% globally versus 4.7% in a vaccine-free scenario. Thanks to widespread immunization, Kazakhstan has eliminated diseases such as typhoid fever, diphtheria, cholera, plague, and others. Yet these gains are fragile and could be reversed if herd immunity continues to erode.
